Disney’s latest movie, The Little Mermaid, has been declared a “massive flop” by box office analyst OMB Reviews.
The film saw a 58% drop in its second weekend at domestic theaters, and while it added $42.3 million to its international total, this still leaves the movie well short of success.
Its global gross sits at $326.7 million, and with a production budget of $250 million, it is still in the red.
OMB Reviews stated that the film is “essentially guaranteed” to be one of the worst performing movies in Disney’s history.
OMB Reviews went on to explain that when comparing The Little Mermaid to Aladdin, which was released on Memorial Day weekend in 2019, the former may only make $300-350 million domestically.
In contrast, Aladdin made $788 million internationally.
The Little Mermaid has so far only made $140 million, meaning it is unlikely to reach its break-even point of $625 million.
OMB Reviews predicted that the film could lose between $50 and $100 million, even in the best-case scenario.
The movie’s poor performance has prompted a wave of criticism, including from British diversity activist and Royal Academy of Dramatic Art Chair Marcus Ryder.
He decried Disney’s live-action The Little Mermaid for ignoring the topic of Caribbean slavery.
However, the film’s hair and makeup designer responded to attacks that he should have been replaced by an LGBTQ designer, stating that he found the suggestion “very offensive.”
OMB Reviews broke down his process for analyzing the box office hauls of movies, explaining that most films will make either 70% of their entire box office within the first two weeks or half of their entire box office if they have strong legs.
While exceptions exist, the vast majority of films fall somewhere between the 70% and 50% number.
OMB Reviews assumed that $326 million was 70% of The Little Mermaid’s entire box office, meaning that the end result would likely be $466 million worldwide.
A worst-case scenario would see the film lose $100 million, while the best case scenario would see it make minimal profit.
Ultimately, this news is a blow to Disney, which has recently relied on its streaming service, Disney+, for much of its revenue.
The company will hope that future releases, such as the upcoming Black Widow movie, perform better at the box office.
