According to a study conducted by polling firm Ipsos Mori, more than half of people in the UK believe Scotland should be granted a second independence referendum within five years if the Scottish National Party obtains a majority in the May 6 elections.

Northern Ireland (66%) and Scotland (56%) had the most support, while the majority of people in England and Wales think the party should be allowed to conduct another election (51 per cent).

Four out of ten people (40%) believe the UK government should not allow it, while 8% are unsure.

In addition, more than half of those polled believe the UK will cease to exist in its present form within a decade.

Over half (53%) believe the United Kingdom will cease to exist in its present form in ten years, with those in Scotland and Northern Ireland being more inclined to believe this (61 percent and 59 percent respectively). Over a third (35%) believe the United Kingdom will cease to exist in its present shape in five years, with 45 percent in Scotland.

Six out of ten people in the UK think the UK would grow weaker if Scotland votes to leave, while just 11% believe the UK will become stronger. Half of those polled (48%) think it would weaken England, while 60% say it will weaken Scotland.

The poll of over 8,500 individuals is expected to put further pressure on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to reconsider his reluctance to allow a repeat of the 2014 referendum, in which Scots voted 55-45 against independence.

“The Scottish Parliament elections on May 6 look set to be a critical point in the future of the Union,” said Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Mori Scotland.

“Should the SNP win a majority of seats, as looks likely if current levels of support hold, it will be much more difficult for the UK Government to refuse a second referendum on independence.

“And these figures suggest that on balance, the UK public are on board with that course of action – more believe that the UK Government should allow a second referendum in the event of a SNP majority than say it should not.”

If another referendum were conducted, half of the UK people would want Scotland to vote against becoming an independent nation, while 17% would prefer them to vote in favor. In Scotland, public opinion is divided: 46 percent want their nation to vote against independence, while 45 percent want Scots to vote for it. Those in England and Wales who want Scotland to stay in the UK are most likely to vote against it (51 percent and 57 percent respectively).

Data was weighted to fit the demographic profile and interviews were performed online between April 1 and 7.

The Scottish parliamentary elections on May 6 may be a watershed event for the UK’s constitutional future, with the SNP announcing plans for a referendum by the end of 2023. Only around a quarter of the individuals polled by Ipsos Mori in the UK believed the UK will still exist in its present shape in ten years.

“Each of the four nations of the UK are united in recognising the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland,” SNP deputy leader Keith Brown said, “but Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer continue to be at odds.”

Four out of ten people in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (41%) say they would be sorry if Scotland voted to leave the UK, while 38% say it would make no difference to them. Only 7% of people say they would be content. Northern Ireland residents are considerably more likely to say they would be pleased if this were to happen; a quarter (24%) say they would be happy and 29% say they would be sad, but the majority (38%) say it would make no difference to them.

“Now more than ever, people in Scotland want to see the UK Government and the devolved administrations working together to protect lives and livelihoods,” a UK Government spokesperson said.

“The push for a divisive referendum is simply irresponsible.

“It is a distraction, when we need to focus on continuing to tackle the pandemic and rebuilding our economy.”

The poll of Ipsos Mori’s “knowledge panel,” which is made up of individuals chosen at random to be representative of opinion throughout the UK, revealed significant confusion over the country’s constitutional future.